Estimator based on COVSIM model for unmasked, untested school populations.

This tool takes public school district population data, and runs it through the COVSIM formula to simulate what an unmasked, untested school population would look like after a 107 day semester. First select your state, and then select a school district in the dropdown to see district specific simulations.

This first step is select your state, and then you can select school districts in your state to see what the simulation predicts.


Don't see your state? Contact me and let me know how I can help.


Formulas

No Masks, No Testing

High School
Infection rate: 200 / 500 or 40%

Middle School
Infection rate: 255 / 500 or 51%

Elementary
Infection rate: 315 / 500 or 63%

No Masks, With Testing

High School
Infection rate: 163 / 500 or 32.6%

Middle School
Infection rate: 225 / 500 or 45%

Elementary
Infection rate: 280 / 500 or 56%

With Masks, No Testing

High School
Infection rate: 50 / 500 or 10%

Middle School
Infection rate: 105 / 500 or 21%

Elementary
Infection rate: 175 / 500 or 35%

With Masks, With Testing

High School
Infection rate: 38 / 500 or 7%

Middle School
Infection rate: 60 / 500 or 12%

Elementary
Infection rate: 105 / 500 or 21%

Hospitalization Rates
Low: 0.2%
High: 1.9%



The modeling projection formula is from the 'COVID-19 Simulation Integrated Model (COVSIM)' and you can find more detail [here].

Iowa school population data is from: Iowa Department of Education, Bureau of Information and Analysis, Address File, and SRI Fall Merged 2021 file

Missouri school population data is from: Missouri Department of Elementary & Secondary Education, Missouri School Directory